Experts are optimistic about economic recovery in a post-pandemic world. This positive outlook is felt largely as a result of the vaccine rollout and the ability to keep the global economy running despite social distancing and business challenges. Through this pandemic, it is obvious that we need to learn from this moment in history while keeping an eye out for future sources of weakness. The pandemic has posed a reality-check on global interdependence. After all is said and done, recovery is essential. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicts that major growth will be seen in 2021 and 2022.
The OECD suggests that global output will increase by 2.5% in the final quarter of 2022, which is an improvement from previous forecasts. There is a belief that improvement will come as a result of vaccines and because of the stimulus package of $1.9 trillion being rolled out by the government. If all goes well, the US GDP should rise by 3.8% in the whole year, and this improvement will impact countries worldwide.
Benjamin Gordon Palm Beach: The outlook of the global economy
Fiscal expansion
According to Benjamin Gordon Palm Beach, the American government’s bold financial decisions will prove helpful moving forward. The current administration is considering spending $3 trillion on clean energy, education, and infrastructure. These stimulus packages form about a quarter of the country’s GDP. Taxes are unlikely to jump, and with whatever changes come, the Federal Reserve will ensure stability is maintained. While these sound like exciting advancements, some critics feel that excess stimulus might do more harm than good. As such, it is necessary to be careful with each step out of this pandemic.
The vaccine has not been rolled out equally or equitably. The equitable distribution of the vaccine has posed a real challenge in terms of both ethics and logistics. When one talks of developing global herd immunity, this means that at least 75% of the world’s total six billion adult population will have to receive two doses of the COVID-19 vaccination. This indicates a minimum requirement of delivering at least 9 billion doses around the world. However, only 450 million vaccines have been administered, and the chances of reaching this target of herd immunity by 2022 are low. Plus, the risk of COVID variants still remains ever present. This truth calls for demand and supply cooperation amongst nations, according to Benjamin Gordon Palm Beach.
Virus outbreak
Since the pandemic began 15 months ago, COVID fatalities stand at 2.7 million worldwide. Numbers on fatalities from the Spanish flu are not exact. Rough estimates suggest the death toll might have been anywhere between 17 and 100 million deaths in under two years. At that time, the world population was also smaller. Today, people can work from home despite such global challenges, which was virtually impossible 100 years ago. Countries with high incomes can protect people who face job losses and can cover losses within the economy. Still, countries with less resources continue to struggle.
As such, the growing interdependence between countries requires cooperation and support to battle the virus’s adverse impact on the global economy.
